Elon Musk talks about Artificial Intelligence, Neuralink

talk about your time allocation I think

one of the things you spend an awful lot

of time thinking about I know is

artificial intelligence it’s something

that you and I have a shared interest

that it’s something that our audience is

interested in as well the question here

is a lot of experts in AI don’t share

the same level of concern did you do

about the day traffic rules what what’s

his last words what’s what specifically

do you believe that they don’t well the

biggest issue I see with so-called AI

experts is that they they think they

know more than they do and they think

they’re smarter than they actually are

in general we are all much smarter than

we think we are much less smart dumber

than we think you are by a lot so this

is this tends to play plague smart

people that you just can’t that they

define themselves by their intelligence

and they they don’t like the idea that a

machine can be way smarter than them so

they discount the idea which is

fundamentally flawed that’s the wishful

thinking situation I’m really quite

close to I’m very close to the cutting

edge in AI and it scares the hell out of

me

it’s capable of vastly more than almost

anyone knows and the rate of improvement

is exponential you can see that some

things like alphago which went from in

the span of maybe six to nine months it

went from being unable to beat even a

reasonably good go player so then

beating the European world champion who

was ranked 600 then beating Lisa doll

for five what would be in a world

champion for many years then beating the

current world champion then beating

everyone while playing simultaneously

then then there was alpha zero which

crushed alphago 100 to 0 and alpha zero

just learnt by playing itself and it can

play basically any game that you put the

rules in for if you whatever rules you

give it

it literally read the rules play the

game every superhuman for any game

nobody expected that great of

improvement to guess those so those same

experts who think AI is not progressing

at the rate that I’m saying I think

you’ll find that their predictions for

things like go and and other and other

AI advancements have therefore their

batting average is quite weak it’s not

good that we’ll see this also with was

self-driving i I think probably by

anammox year the self-driving will be

well encompass essentially all modes

driving and be at least a hundred to two

hundred percent safer than a person by

the end of next year we’re talking maybe

eighteen months from now and it’s a

third study on on Tesla’s autopilot

version one which is relatively

primitive and found that it was a forty

five percent reduction in highway

accidents and that’s despite what a

pilot one being just version one version

two I think will be at least two or

three times better that’s the current

version that’s running right now so the

rate of improvement is really dramatic

we have to figure out some way to ensure

that the advent of digital super

intelligence is one which is semiotics

with humanity I think that’s the single

biggest existential crisis that we face

and the most pressing one and how do we

do that I mean if we take it that it’s

inevitable at this point that some

version of AI is coming down the line

how do we how do we steer through them

well I’m not normally an advocate of

regulation and oversight I mean I think

it’s once you generally go inside

minimizing those things but this is a

case where you have a very serious

danger to the public and it’s therefore

there needs to be a public body that has

insight and then oversight on to confirm

that everyone is developing AI safely

this is extremely important I think a

danger of AI is much greater than the

danger of nuclear warheads landlocked

and nobody would suggest that we allow

anyone to just blow up nuclear warheads

if they want that would be insane and

mark my words

AI is far more dangerous than nukes far

so why do we have no regulatory

oversight this is insane

what question you’ve been asking for a

long time I think it’s a question that’s

come to the forefront over the last year

where you begin to realize that it

doesn’t necessarily I think if we’ve all

been focused in on the idea of

artificial superintelligence right which

is clearly a danger but maybe you know a

little further out what’s happened over

the last years you’ve seen artificial

what I’ve been calling artificial

stupidity talking about you know

algorithmic manipulation of social media

like we’re in it now it’s starting it’s

starting to happen how do we how do we

is it

what’s the intervention at this point so

I’m not really all that worried about

the short-term stuff things that are

other like narrow AI is not a species

  Deep Learning: What is it good for?

level risk it will it will result in

dislocation in lost jobs and you know

that sort of better weaponry and that

kind of thing but it is not a

fundamental species level risk whereas

digital super intelligence is so it’s

really all about laying the groundwork

to make sure that if if humanity

collectively your science that creating

digital super intelligence is the right

move then we should do so very very

carefully very very carefully this is

the most important thing that we could

possibly do

building on that other other than AI and

the the other issues that you’re you’re

tackling transportation energy

production aerospace what issues should

our next generation of leaders be

focused on solving what else is coming

down the line well I mean there there

are other things that are on a longer

time scale the obviously the things that

I believe in like extending life beyond

Earth making life multiplanetary but I’m

a big believer in a sort of Asimov’s

Foundation series or the principle that

you you really want to you know I

recommend reading the foundation series

but it’s like if you if you know that

there’s a there’s likely to be you know

you don’t know but there’s likely to be

another Dark Ages which it seems my

guess is the father will be at some

point I’m not on a predicting that we’re

about to enter a Dark Ages but that

there’s some probability that we will

particularly if there’s a third world

war then we wanna make sure that there’s

enough of us of a seed of human

civilization somewhere else to bring

civilization back and perhaps shorten

the length of the dark ages I think

that’s why it’s um it’s important to get

a self-sustaining base ideally on Mars

because Mars is far enough away from

Earth that occur that a warrant earth

the Mars base might survive is more

likely to survive than a moon base but I

think a moon base and a Mars base that

that could perhaps help regenerate life

back here on earth it would be really

important and to get that done before a

possible World War 3 you know last

century we had two massive world wars

three if you count the Cold War I think

it’s unlikely that we’ll never have

another world war again the parlor will

be at some point or if we have another

one it’ll be the last you

Madhvi radioactive rubble yeah so again

I’m not predicting this seems like well

if you say given enough time will it be

most likely given enough time this is

this is this is has been our pattern in

the past yeah so like we really believe

in the zeroth law of Asimov zeroth law

you’re gonna take the set of actions

most likely to support the humanity of

the future but I think that

sustainability is also obviously really

important

that’s tautological if it’s not

sustainable its unsustainable yeah how

close are we to solving that problem

well I think that the core technologies

are are there with the wind solar with

with batteries the the fundamental

problem is that there’s an unprecedented

the cost of of co2 the market economics

works very well if things are priced

correctly but when there’s when things

are not priced correctly and something

that has has a real cost has zero cost

then that’s where you get distortions in

the market that inhibit the progress of

of other technologies so essentially

anything that that produces carbon it

will push push carbon into the

atmosphere which includes rockets by the

way so I’m not excluding rockets from

this there has to be a price and that

you start off with a low price but then

that price and and then depending upon

whether that price has any effect on the

past a million possibility of co2 in the

atmosphere you can adjust that price up

or down but in the absence of a price we

sort of pretend that digging trillions

of tons of fossil fuels from deep under

the earth and putting it into the

atmosphere pretending that that had that

that that has no probability of a bad

outcome and the entire scientific

community is saying obviously it has

it’s gonna have a bad

obviously you just you’re changing the

chemical constituency the atmosphere so

so it’s really up to people and

governments to put to put a price on on

carbon and and then automatically the

right thing happens it’s really

straightforward what do we do with the

carbon surrender I actually think we can

manage with the current carbon level or

even a little bit higher it’s and this

is gonna sound sound like I’m

backtracking but there’s actually an

argument that more carbon in the

atmosphere is is actually good but up to

a point so we might actually arguably

have been a little carbon starved if you

go back 200 years ago and say okay well

Furies go like you had like two hundred

eight hundred ninety parts per million

  How Far is Too Far? | The Age of A.I.

of carbon we’re probably a little cough

and stuff now we’re about four hundred

just passed four hundred mark I think

somewhere in the 400s probably okay we’d

have to worry about sequestering carbon

or anything like that but not if those

momentum keeps going and we stopped

going up to six hundred eight hundred a

thousand fifteen hundred that’s where

things get really squirrelly and the

sheer momentum of the world’s energy

infrastructure is leading us in that

direction so it’s just very important

that the the public and the governor’s

push to ensure the correct price of

carbon is paid so that that will be the

thing that matters yeah our audience is

very interested in knowing how many

hours of sleep you got last night I

don’t know about six five or six I think

all right I feel like we know part of

the answer this cuz you were trapped in

west wall for a while

[Music]

but but how do I mean on a regular day

for you or you are you are you sleepy

you’re not sleeping a lot

right well geez do I look that bad huh

you look great okay just imagine with

the amount of responsibilities we think

about you know with what you’ve got

going on do these problems still keep

you up at night or do you think we’re on

our way to solving well right now the

only things that are really stressing me

out in a big way are AI obviously that’s

like boys there and and I’m working

really hard on Tesla Model 3 production

and we’re making good progress but it’s

usually hard work but those are the two

most restful things my life right now

yeah our audience really wants to know

we hope the world will look like four

children born today when they’re your

age wins right what do you hope for the

world to look like what’s the best-case

scenario say we solve these problems

what’s that world look like

let’s see I think the a good picture

would look like you know we’re really

substantially transferred to sustainable

generation and consumption of

electricity so that the the co2 risk and

the ocean rising risk is mitigated and

we’re not looking at like you know

having Florida and it’s sort of large

portions the world underwater that’d be

great that not but to have addressed

that risk that’ll be there you know was

for us to have a base on the moon

face a mirage big out there exploring

the solar system so welding industry on

it essentially having you know

civilization to go out there and and

have you such that anyone can go the

Moon or Mars or this whole system if

they want making it really affordable I

do think it’s important that this

competition of their multiple companies

doing this not just a sex and and

a I risk is that I guess it’s the sort

of a benign AI and they were able to

achieve a symbiosis with that AI ideally

the AI there’s somebody who came over

his name but had a good a suggestion for

what the optimization of the AI should

be

what’s its utility function you have to

be careful about this because you say

maximize happiness and the AG concludes

that happiness is function of dopamine

and serotonin so she captures all humans

and jacks your brain with large amounts

of dopamine serotonin like ok so he

meant it sounds pretty good though I

love it well I like the definition of

like the I should try to maximize the

freedom of action of you of humanity

maximize the freedom of action maximize

freedom essentially I like that

definition but we do want to close

coupling between collective human

intelligence and digital intelligence

and a neural link is trying to help in

that regard by creating a an interface

between a high bandwidth interface

between AI and your and human brain

there were already we’re already a

sidewalk in the sense that your phone

and your computer a kind of extension of

you just low bandwidth input-output

exactly it’s just low bandwidth

particularly output I mean two thumbs

basically so how do we solve that

problem

giver the bandwidth it’s a bandwidth

issue but we’ve all we’ve also come to

it now we’re all we’re all cyborgs we’re

just low efficiency cyborgs so how do we

how do we make it better I think we’ve

gotta both a we’ve got apples in her

face like we didn’t evolve to have a

communications Jack you know some so

there’s gotta be essentially vast

numbers of of tiny electrodes that are

able to read right from your brain of

course you know security is pretty

important in the situation say the least

obviously saying I’m not coming with I’m

keeping my brain air-gapped yeah well I

think a lot of people will choose to do

that but it’s a bit like Ian banks is in

your lace but not made it but in the

case of your lace it sort of felt that’s

there from when you’re born or it’s sort

  Deep Learning: What is it good for?

of it’s not a it’s working so tobacco

yeah kind of a backup this would be this

there’s a digital extension of you that

is an AI the AI extension of you a

tertiary layer of intelligence so you’ve

got your limbic system your cortex and

and the tertiary which is the digital AI

extension of you and that high bandwidth

connection is what achieves the tights

and biases I think that’s the best

outcome I I hope so if you know he’s got

better ideas and pull up to here and you

talking about another project that

you’re working on that her audience

wants to know a little bit more about

Starling oh can you tell us anything

doing Skynet hopefully not Skynet its

Internet in the sky

well we we don’t talk that much about

StarLink but essentially it’s intended

to provide low latency high bandwidth

internet connectivity throughout the

world that actually will not be enough

cognitive processing car onboard the

satellite system to to in any way be a

Skynet thing like it’s the digital AI

requires a lot of super intelligence

requires lot of big servers on the

ground to power intensity but this is

attempt to be to provide people with who

don’t have any internet connectivity

with Internet connectivity and it’s very

good for sparse and responsive operated

in moderate moderate least boss equated

populated areas and forgiving people in

cities a choice of a in your low-cost

choice of internet access but I do think

it’s gonna be important the stalling

system will be important in providing

the funding necessary for SpaceX to

develop interplanetary spacecraft and at

the same time yeah helping people who

have even though or super expensive

connectivity and giving people in urban

areas more of a competitive choice very

cool I have to ask you because it’s the

number one question just going back to

Mars what kind of government do you

envision for the first Martian colony

and what’s your and what’s your title

yeah yeah exactly

Emperor oh God Emperor I don’t know

it might be too much

if you were to watch my jokes yeah not

everyone gets irony you know I remember

so I think the I think most likely the

the form of government on Mars would be

somewhat of a direct democracy where you

vote on issues where people vote

directly on issues instead of going

through representative government in in

when the United States was formed

representative government was the only

thing that was logistically feasible

because people there’s no way it was all

your people to communicate instantly a

lot of people’s didn’t even have really

access to mail boxes well there wasn’t

even the post office was very primitive

a lot of people couldn’t write so you

had to have some form of representative

democracy or things just wouldn’t work

at all but I think I’m most likely it’s

gonna be people at everyone votes on

every issue and that’s how it goes

a few things I’d recommend which is keep

Lois shirt

long Lois it’s like that’s that’s

something suspicious is going on if

there’s long Bowl you know if you if the

size of law exceeds the word count of

Lord of the Rings which it does

amazingly then it’s like something’s

wrong so there should be a limit to the

size of the law that I should be able to

digest it like how come you can read the

Constitution and all of the amendments

like you can read those and maybe an

hour and and we haven’t so much of a

civilization by that and yet modern law

is this obtuse super boring tome that’s

indecipherable to almost anyone so I

think direct democracy lowers lows that

are comprehensible I think having some

kind of hysteresis on like it should be

easier to remove a law than create one

because things just get to inertia you

have to have something that’s gonna

combination so probably I don’t want the

right number of you maybe it’s like

60/40 maybe you don’t quite a 60% to get

a law in place but any number above 40%

can remove a little otherwise things

that you just get lowers just accumulate

over time they cure their time and it’s

sort of like Gulliver where you just get

trapped by all these tiny strings and

can’t move

you get hardening of the arteries of

civilization with law with rules and

rules rules rules so it should be just

easier to get rid of rule then let’s put

one in maybe it should even have like a

some kind of sunset clause so that they

just automatically expire unless there’s

enough of an impetus to keep them around

I know I know there’s an affirmative

which is I’m interested in hearing a

little bit more about the very early

days with tassel on how it came together

brother Kimble is here so we bring him

out

you guys could talk a little bit about

it

 

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